As South Africa moves toward a more fragmented political landscape, coalition governments are becoming the new norm. What does this mean for governance, stability, and democracy.
South Africa’s politics is going through a soft but strong change. For many years, the African National Congress ran the country and regions, giving a feeling of sameness in leading. But now, in recent votes, there has been a big drop in single-party wins. This has brought a change to how places are governed—groups working together when no party gets enough votes to rule by itself.
Political fragmentation means that the post-apartheid years no longer seem improbable: the years have become a period over which political fragmentation has developed as a defining characteristic of the country’s democracy. To some, it is worrisome as a source of uncertainty. To others, it is welcomed as an opportunity for more inclusive and accountable governance. This article will look at what is driving this political shift.
Political fragmentation happens when a clear majority is not seen with any one party, which results in a more fragmented political scenario. In South Africa, this trend has picked up speed at the local and provincial levels and now at the national level, with more and more numbers of voters turning to smaller parties or choosing not to vote.
In the 2021 local government elections, the African National Congress dropped to below 50% nationally for the first time, which meant that in the key metros, they then had to go into coalitions to stay in charge. Cities like Johannesburg, Tshwane, and Nelson Mandela Bay now require multi-party coalitions to be able to govern.
This is said to carry on into the next general election and some say that soon coalition governments at a national level will be a must.
What is causing this?
There are several factors that contribute to the political fragmentation in South Africa:
• Dissatisfaction among the public: Problems such as unemployment, corruption, and service delivery have led to a loss of trust in the parties that have governed for many years.
• Emergence of new parties: Movements like ActionSA, the EFF and smaller regional parties are growing their support, particularly with younger voters and citizens feeling disenfranchised.
• Decrease in voter turnout: Fewer South Africans are showing up to vote, and this weakens the traditional mandate.
Urban-rural divides: Voters in the urban areas would have a higher probability to shift their allegiance or support the opposition parties.
The political map is becoming more competitive and diverse, but also more complex.
The rise of coalition governments
Coalition government is a form of government where two or more parties come into agreement to share power and decision-making among themselves after discussing policy and priorities regarding the leadership roles and budget.
Coalitions are the fact of the matter in numerous South African local governments now, and how well – or badly – they do presages what national administrations might look like in the future.
– Frequent changes in leadership: The coalitions break up leading to a change in the position of mayor or the leadership of the council.
– Delayed service delivery: There is a disagreem
ent on budgets or responsibilities which can slow decision-making.
That said coalitions also force dialogue transparency and compromise all of which can strengthen democratic practices if managed effectively.
Case studies What can we learn?
Johannesburg
From 2016, the city of Johannesburg has seen quite a series of coalition changes, with power passing about between the ANC and different other opposition alliances. Though political instability has been a worry, coalitions have also meant more new voices coming into the governance of the city, thus leading to more debate.
In Nelson Mandela Bay, coalition dynamics have resulted in frequent leadership changes, which to an extent dilute the delivery of services. Although, in the recent past, there have been attempts to forge much more stable coalitions with articulate terms and mechanisms of accountability.
These illustrate that coalition arithmetic is not a guarantee of success; rather, it is the level of political maturity, the art of negotiation, and public accountability.
What does this portend in the long term?
As South Africa moves toward more political diversity, coalitions could become a lasting part of its democratic system. This change could bring both chances and risks:
Chances:
• More fair decision-making, with many parties.
• Better response to local needs, as smaller parties often focus on certain communities.
• Checks and balances, which would lower the risk of uncontrolled power.
Risks:
• Short-term thinking, where parties look at political survival more than long-term policy planning.
• Political standstill, particularly in evenly split councils or houses.
• Citizen fury if coalition squabbles result in bad service provision.
To steer clear of these perils, more robust governance structures should be embraced— like actual coalition pacts, more defined roles and better public outreach.
The citizen and civil society
In a fragmented political environment, it becomes even more imperative to engage the citizens. Shaping the coalitions and holding the leaders accountable by being vigilant, informed, demanding transparency, and participating in the decisions that are made by them is through their individual votes.
This is also undertaken by monitoring the performance of the coalitions by civil society organizations, media, and watchdog groups to ensure that public interest is always front and center in governance.
Political fragmentation in South Africa is not a theory—it is alive. Though complex, it is the very measure of advancing democracy, increasing contestedness of power and the presences of different voices. Coalition governments, once there is trust with the shared goal, can provide a mechanism for good responsive, transparent, and collaborative leadership. But for this, it would need political discipline with accountability in the public domain towards the future of the nation. As coalitions will develop to form the new trajectory of evolution for South Africa, the main question would be to what extent it serves the people on whose behalf it is formed.
